Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Fee-adjusted Yes on one venue and No on another for Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?. Indigo rings on the prices above mark those asks. Assume equivalent resolution.

Yes onPolymarket↗38.0¢+No onKalshi↗60.7¢=98.6¢combined·+1.4% implied

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Fees

For the cross-venue prices shown above — same venue, same schedule for each outcome.

Trading fees

From each venue's own fee data or published rules (Polymarket: fee schedule on the market; Kalshi: official taker formula). The simple percent is a shorthand—actual dollars still depend on price and size. Hover a venue for full wording.

Polymarket: 4%
Kalshi: 7%

Contract rules

Compare the exchange-specific contract text behind the prices above.

PPolymarket

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Close date

Dec 31, 2026

KKalshi

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Description

If Susie WIles leaves as Chief of Staff before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution criteria

Susie WIles must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to "No." For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.

Close date

Jan 1, 2027

Resolution date

Jan 7, 2027