Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

KPMatchCombined volume $4.8MCloses 7mo
Updated 7 min ago

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Best Yes
Best No
Details
100% implied probability
66% implied probability
65% implied probability
60% implied probability
+4.5%
51% implied probability
49% implied probability
45% implied probability
40% implied probability

Showing 8 of 36 outcomes

Venue details

Volume, depth, close times, and each venue's trading-fee metadata (same values we use in the comparison above). Hover a fee cell for the venue's full fee wording.

Venue
Volume
24h vol
Depth
Closes
Fee
$1.2M
$2.4K
Moderate
Dec 31, 2026
4%
$3.6M
$39.6K
Deep
Dec 31, 2026
7%
Always verify contract rules before trading.Contract rules ↓

Contract rules

Raw venue wording can differ even when titles match. Kalshi often shows one representative contract when rules vary by outcome—open the venue for the full set.

PPolymarket
Shared · 16 outcomes
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Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Closes
Dec 31, 2026
KKalshi
Representative · 33 outcomes

For Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

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Description

If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves as HHS Secretary before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. If the role otherwise ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the contract may resolve to "No." For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.

Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Resolves
Jan 7, 2027