Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?

Fee-adjusted Yes on one venue and No on another for Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?. Indigo rings on the prices above mark those asks. Assume equivalent resolution.

Yes onKalshi↗8.5¢+No onPolymarket↗85.5¢=94.0¢combined·+6.3% implied

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Fees

For the cross-venue prices shown above — same venue, same schedule for each outcome.

Trading fees

From each venue's own fee data or published rules (Polymarket: fee schedule on the market; Kalshi: official taker formula). The simple percent is a shorthand—actual dollars still depend on price and size. Hover a venue for full wording.

Polymarket: 4%
Kalshi: 7%

Contract rules

Compare the exchange-specific contract text behind the prices above.

PPolymarket

Description

This market will resolve according to "Yes" if the listed type of consumer hardware product is publicly announced by OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of a qualifying consumer hardware product within the market timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether or when the product is released. If a device fulfills multiple device categories, then all relevant categories will resolve to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.

Close date

Dec 31, 2026

KKalshi

View contract↗

Description

If OpenAI announces its first hardware device as part of their collaboration/acquisition of Jony Ive's io that is Watch before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.