Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
2 platforms$29.9M volumePart of Fed Decision in July?
Compare prices on Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
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Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Outcome25 bps increase
- Volume
- $18.9M
- 24h vol
- $446.4K
- Depth
- Deep
- Closes
- Jul 29, 2026
Fees
For the cross-venue prices shown above — same venue, same schedule for each outcome.
From each venue's own fee data or published rules (Polymarket: fee schedule on the market; Kalshi: official taker formula). The simple percent is a shorthand—actual dollars still depend on price and size. Hover a venue for full wording.
- Polymarket
- 5%
- Kalshi
- 7%
Contract rules on Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Compare the exchange-specific contract text behind the prices above.
Description
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Description
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on July 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution criteria
This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.
Other outcomes in Fed Decision in July?
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