Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?
2 platforms$7.8M volumePart of Next Fed rate hike?
Compare prices on Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?
Green = best available price per side. Each card shows how that exchange titles the contract, plus liquidity, volume, and close date.
Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?
OutcomeBefore 2027
- Volume
- $1.9M
- 24h vol
- $144.6K
- Depth
- Deep
- Closes
- Jan 1, 2027
Best cross-venue arbitrage
Fee-adjusted Yes on one venue and No on another for Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?. Indigo rings on the prices above mark those asks. Assume equivalent resolution.
Fees
For the cross-venue prices shown above — same venue, same schedule for each outcome.
From each venue's own fee data or published rules (Polymarket: fee schedule on the market; Kalshi: official taker formula). The simple percent is a shorthand—actual dollars still depend on price and size. Hover a venue for full wording.
- Kalshi
- 7%
- Polymarket
- 5%
Contract rules on Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?
Compare the exchange-specific contract text behind the prices above.
Description
If the Federal Reserve hikes again by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in Next Fed rate hike?
Same cross-venue rows as the event page price table — excluding the contract you are viewing.
