Next Fed rate hike?

KPMatchCombined volume $8.1MCloses 6mo
Updated 2 min ago

Compare odds on Next Fed rate hike?

Best Yes
Best No
Details
77% implied probability
70% implied probability
65% implied probability
+1.2%

Venue details

Volume, depth, close times, and each venue's trading-fee metadata (same values we use in the comparison above). Hover a fee cell for the venue's full fee wording.

Venue
Volume
24h vol
Depth
Closes
Fee
$2.1M
$188.4K
Deep
Jan 1, 2027
7%
$5.9M
$896.8K
Deep
Dec 9, 2026
5%
Always verify contract rules before trading.Contract rules ↓

Contract Rules: Next Fed rate hike?

Raw venue wording can differ even when titles match. Kalshi often shows one representative contract when rules vary by outcome—open the venue for the full set.

KKalshi
Representative · 3 outcomes

For Before 2027

View contract

Description

If the Federal Reserve hikes again by Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Resolves
Jan 1, 2028
PPolymarket
View contract

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Closes
Dec 9, 2026