Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

KPMatchCombined volume $76.4MCloses 7mo
Updated 2 min ago

Compare prices

Best Yes
Best No
Details
27% implied probability
20% implied probability
13% implied probability
6% implied probability
6% implied probability
2% implied probability
1% implied probability

Venue details

Volume, depth, close times, and each venue's trading-fee metadata (same values we use in the comparison above). Hover a fee cell for the venue's full fee wording.

Venue
Volume
24h vol
Depth
Closes
Fee
$50.8M
$516.3K
Deep
Dec 31, 2026
4%
$25.6M
$173.3K
Deep
Jul 1, 2026
7%
Always verify contract rules before trading.Contract rules ↓

Contract rules

Raw venue wording can differ even when titles match. Kalshi often shows one representative contract when rules vary by outcome—open the venue for the full set.

PPolymarket
Representative · 3 outcomes

For December 31

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Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Closes
Dec 31, 2026
KKalshi
Representative · 5 outcomes

For Before 2027

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Description

If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution

For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.

Closes
Jan 1, 2027
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