Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

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Polymarket: No trading fee
Kalshi: 7%

Contract rules

Compare the exchange-specific contract text behind the prices above.

PPolymarket

Description

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Close date

Dec 31, 2026

KKalshi

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Description

If Yair Lapid becomes Prime Minister of Israel as a result of government formation following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and meets all constitutional requirements before Oct 27, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution criteria

For the purposes of this contract, these rules will satisfy the payout criterion: The person must be formally appointed, sworn in, or invested according to the country's constitutional procedures and command the confidence of the parliament/legislature through an investiture vote, formal approval, or constitutional convention. They must exercise the full powers of the office, not serve in a caretaker or acting capacity from the previous government. The appointment must stem from the government formation process following the specified election. Serving as caretaker pending government formation, being designated to form a government but not yet invested, leading the party with most seats without forming government, being named as designate without completing constitutional requirements, or holding the position temporarily during coalition negotiations do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion. Special situations: If no government forms by the deadline, all markets resolve to No except "No one" if that option exists. If new elections are called before government formation, markets resolve immediately. For rotating arrangements, the first person to meet all criteria resolves to Yes. If the person leading a party dies before taking office, their market resolves to last fair price and their successor may resolve to Yes. Markets for persons not explicitly listed resolve to "Other" if that option exists.

Close date

Oct 27, 2027