Pricing
After-fee price gaps: Kalshi vs Polymarket
For each human-reviewed outcome available on both exchanges, we compare the cost of entering a Yes position after fees and take the difference. Positive numbers mean Kalshi is cheaper; negative numbers mean Polymarket is cheaper.
2956 human-reviewed cross-exchange matches · 662 currently active · last refresh Jul 26, 7:55 PM
Across 662 matched outcomes, Polymarket was cheaper after fees on 65% of them, with a median Polymarket advantage of 0.54¢.
- Sample
- 662
- outcomes
- Median gap
- -0.54¢
- Polymarket cheaper
- Kalshi cheaper
- 35%
- of matches
- Polymarket cheaper
- 65%
- of matches
Distribution
How big are the gaps?
Each bar counts the number of matched outcomes whose after-fee price falls in a 1¢ window. The dashed line marks the median.
By category
Which exchange is cheaper by category?
Median after-fee gap by category, sorted from most-Kalshi-cheaper to most-Polymarket-cheaper. Categories with fewer than 5 matched outcomes are hidden.
| Category | n | Median gap | Kalshi cheaper | Polymarket cheaper |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tech | 13 | +1.73¢ | 62% | 38% |
| Sports | 175 | -0.36¢ | 36% | 63% |
| Politics | 408 | -0.55¢ | 34% | 66% |
| Culture | 19 | -0.56¢ | 47% | 53% |
| Finance | 30 | -0.84¢ | 40% | 60% |
| Crypto | 17 | -5.22¢ | 6% | 94% |
Largest gaps
Largest reviewed gaps
Sorted by absolute after-fee gap, largest first. Large differences can reflect real pricing differences or contract mismatches. Open both venues and verify the rules before acting.
| # | Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AlaskaPolitics K: Will Donald Trump visit Alaska before Jan 1, 2027? P: Alaska — Will Donald Trump visit Alaska in 2026? | 13.8¢ ↗ after fee | 100.0¢ ↗ after fee | +86.21¢ K cheaper |
| 2 | $2,000,000,000+Crypto K: Will Opensea FDV be above $1999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027? P: $2B — Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? | 22.2¢ ↗ after fee | 7.5¢ ↗ after fee | -14.67¢ P cheaper |
| 3 | GlassesTech K: What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? P: Glasses — Will OpenAI announce glasses in 2026? | 9.6¢ ↗ after fee | 23.7¢ ↗ after fee | +14.16¢ K cheaper |
| 4 | Below $40,000.00Crypto K: Will Bitcoin be below $40000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET? P: ↓ 40,000 — Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | 31.5¢ ↗ after fee | 19.1¢ ↗ after fee | -12.37¢ P cheaper |
| 5 | Earbuds/HeadphonesTech K: What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? P: Earbuds/Headphones — Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? | 24.2¢ ↗ after fee | 35.9¢ ↗ after fee | +11.69¢ K cheaper |
| 6 | Before Jan 1, 2027Politics K: Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027? P: December 31 — Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? | 26.3¢ ↗ after fee | 38.0¢ ↗ after fee | +11.65¢ K cheaper |
| 7 | $5,000,000,000+Crypto K: Will Opensea FDV be above $4999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027? P: $5B — Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? | 15.9¢ ↗ after fee | 4.3¢ ↗ after fee | -11.60¢ P cheaper |
| 8 | Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan?Culture K: Will Jon Favreau perform as Happy Hogan in Avengers: Doomsday? P: Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan — Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan? | 42.7¢ ↗ after fee | 32.1¢ ↗ after fee | -10.58¢ P cheaper |
| 9 | OpenAIFinance K: Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first? P: OpenAI — Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | 22.2¢ ↗ after fee | 12.4¢ ↗ after fee | -9.72¢ P cheaper |
| 10 | Below 35%Politics K: Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 35% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub? P: 35% — Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? | 24.2¢ ↗ after fee | 33.9¢ ↗ after fee | +9.67¢ K cheaper |
| 11 | Justin GaethjeSports K: Who will be the Lightweight Title Holder on Dec 31, 2026? P: Justin Gaethje — Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 73.4¢ ↗ after fee | 83.0¢ ↗ after fee | +9.62¢ K cheaper |
| 12 | Above $200.00Crypto K: Will the spot price of Solana be above $200.00 before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET? P: ↑ 200 — Will Solana reach $200 by December 31, 2026? | 15.9¢ ↗ after fee | 6.4¢ ↗ after fee | -9.47¢ P cheaper |
| 13 | Below $1,500.00Crypto K: Will Ethereum reach below $1500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET? P: ↓ 1,500 — Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | 54.7¢ ↗ after fee | 45.7¢ ↗ after fee | -9.05¢ P cheaper |
| 14 | AnthropicFinance K: Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Anthropic? P: Anthropic — Will the US federal government take a stake in Anthropic PBC? | 25.3¢ ↗ after fee | 16.6¢ ↗ after fee | -8.72¢ P cheaper |
| 15 | Clip-on device for clothingTech K: What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? P: Clip-on device for clothing — Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026? | 25.3¢ ↗ after fee | 16.6¢ ↗ after fee | -8.72¢ P cheaper |
| 16 | Rafael GrossiPolitics K: Who will be the next Secretary-General of UN? P: Rafael Grossi — Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? | 59.7¢ ↗ after fee | 51.0¢ ↗ after fee | -8.69¢ P cheaper |
| 17 | Before Jan 1, 2027Politics K: Will Ron DeSantis announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027? P: Ron DeSantis — Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run before 2027? | 15.9¢ ↗ after fee | 7.3¢ ↗ after fee | -8.62¢ P cheaper |
| 18 | Halle Berry as Storm?Culture K: Will Halle Berry perform as Storm in Avengers: Doomsday? P: Halle Berry as Storm — Halle Berry as Storm? | 35.6¢ ↗ after fee | 27.0¢ ↗ after fee | -8.57¢ P cheaper |
| 19 | SheinFinance K: Who will IPO before 2027? P: SHEIN — SHEIN IPO before 2027? | 86.8¢ ↗ after fee | 95.2¢ ↗ after fee | +8.35¢ K cheaper |
| 20 | AustriaPolitics K: Who will recognize Palestine? P: Austria — Will Austria recognize Palestine before 2027? | 10.6¢ ↗ after fee | 2.5¢ ↗ after fee | -8.13¢ P cheaper |
| 21 | Pete FryPolitics K: Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? P: Pete Fry — Will Pete Fry win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | 25.3¢ ↗ after fee | 17.2¢ ↗ after fee | -8.11¢ P cheaper |
| 22 | Eli LillyFinance K: Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Eli Lilly? P: Eli Lilly — Will the US federal government take a stake in Eli Lilly and Company? | 9.6¢ ↗ after fee | 17.6¢ ↗ after fee | +8.01¢ K cheaper |
| 23 | BoeingFinance K: Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Boeing? P: Boeing — Will the US federal government take a stake in The Boeing Company? | 11.7¢ ↗ after fee | 19.6¢ ↗ after fee | +7.95¢ K cheaper |
| 24 | Declan RiceSports K: Who will win Players' Player of the Year? P: Declan Rice — Will Declan Rice win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? | 20.1¢ ↗ after fee | 28.0¢ ↗ after fee | +7.94¢ K cheaper |
| 25 | The NetherlandsPolitics K: Who will recognize Palestine? P: The Netherlands — Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | 13.8¢ ↗ after fee | 21.7¢ ↗ after fee | +7.90¢ K cheaper |
How this is computed
The matched-outcome set comes from a manual review queue: a pair is included only after a human confirms that two markets, one on Kalshi and one on Polymarket, resolve to the same outcome. We use the Yes ask price from each side (the cost to enter a long Yes position) and add the exchange’s fee for that price level to get an after-fee per-contract cost.
Kalshi’s fee is computed from its standard taker schedule (and the lower INX/NASDAQ schedule for those tickers). Polymarket fees are computed only for fee-enabled markets and use the per-token fee rate when available. The signed gap is polymarket_after_fee − kalshi_after_fee, in cents. Positive means Kalshi is cheaper.
We drop pairs without a current Yes ask on both sides, and require a current Yes bid plus a bid-ask spread of 10¢ or less on each venue so thin books don’t dominate the analysis. Outliers beyond the 2nd–98th percentile are clamped to the histogram’s end bins so they don’t squash the rest of the distribution.
Categories assigned by exchange are unified by preferring the more specific tag if either side is “other”. About LocksBet →
