Pricing
After-fee price gaps: Kalshi vs Polymarket
For each human-reviewed outcome available on both exchanges, we compare the cost of entering a Yes position after fees and take the difference. Positive numbers mean Kalshi is cheaper; negative numbers mean Polymarket is cheaper.
2956 human-reviewed cross-exchange matches · 471 currently active · last refresh Sep 10, 3:04 PM
Across 471 matched outcomes, Polymarket was cheaper after fees on 68% of them, with a median Polymarket advantage of 0.54¢.
- Sample
- 471
- outcomes
- Median gap
- -0.54¢
- Polymarket cheaper
- Kalshi cheaper
- 31%
- of matches
- Polymarket cheaper
- 68%
- of matches
Distribution
How big are the gaps?
Each bar counts the number of matched outcomes whose after-fee price falls in a 1¢ window. The dashed line marks the median.
By category
Which exchange is cheaper by category?
Median after-fee gap by category, sorted from most-Kalshi-cheaper to most-Polymarket-cheaper. Categories with fewer than 5 matched outcomes are hidden.
| Category | n | Median gap | Kalshi cheaper | Polymarket cheaper |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finance | 26 | -0.32¢ | 42% | 58% |
| Sports | 145 | -0.46¢ | 38% | 61% |
| Tech | 12 | -0.51¢ | 33% | 58% |
| Politics | 250 | -0.54¢ | 27% | 72% |
| Culture | 23 | -2.02¢ | 22% | 78% |
| Crypto | 15 | -4.08¢ | 7% | 93% |
Largest gaps
Largest reviewed gaps
Sorted by absolute after-fee gap, largest first. Large differences can reflect real pricing differences or contract mismatches. Open both venues and verify the rules before acting.
| # | Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $2,000,000,000+Crypto K: Will Opensea FDV be above $1999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027? P: $2B — Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? | 27.4¢ ↗ after fee | 7.5¢ ↗ after fee | -19.86¢ P cheaper |
| 2 | AlaskaPolitics K: Will Donald Trump visit Alaska before Jan 1, 2027? P: Alaska — Will Donald Trump visit Alaska in 2026? | 86.8¢ ↗ after fee | 100.0¢ ↗ after fee | +13.16¢ K cheaper |
| 3 | $5,000,000,000+Crypto K: Will Opensea FDV be above $4999999999.99 at 10:00 AM on Jan 1, 2027? P: $5B — Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? | 18.0¢ ↗ after fee | 5.0¢ ↗ after fee | -12.95¢ P cheaper |
| 4 | IsraelPolitics K: Will Donald Trump visit Israel before Jan 1, 2027? P: Israel — Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? | 22.2¢ ↗ after fee | 12.4¢ ↗ after fee | -9.72¢ P cheaper |
| 5 | ParamountFinance K: Will Paramount's takeover of Warner Brothers succeed Before July 2027? P: Paramount — Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? | 82.1¢ ↗ after fee | 72.8¢ ↗ after fee | -9.26¢ P cheaper |
| 6 | DiscordFinance K: Who will IPO before 2027? P: Discord — Discord IPO before 2027? | 24.2¢ ↗ after fee | 15.4¢ ↗ after fee | -8.81¢ P cheaper |
| 7 | Before Jan 1, 2027Politics K: Will Ron DeSantis announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027? P: Ron DeSantis — Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run before 2027? | 18.0¢ ↗ after fee | 9.3¢ ↗ after fee | -8.65¢ P cheaper |
| 8 | Smithsonian Women’s History MuseumPolitics K: Will legislation that authorizes siting the Women’s History Museum within the National Mall Reserve become law before Jan 1, 2027? P: Smithsonian Women’s History Museum — Will the Smithsonian Women’s History Museum become law this year? | 3.2¢ ↗ after fee | 11.7¢ ↗ after fee | +8.52¢ K cheaper |
| 9 | DatabricksFinance K: Who will IPO before 2027? P: Databricks — Databricks IPO before 2027? | 3.2¢ ↗ after fee | 11.4¢ ↗ after fee | +8.21¢ K cheaper |
| 10 | Before Jan 1, 2027Politics K: Will Marco Rubio announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027? P: Marco Rubio — Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2027? | 12.7¢ ↗ after fee | 4.6¢ ↗ after fee | -8.17¢ P cheaper |
| 11 | Gadi EizenkotPolitics K: Will Gadi Eizenkot become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative election? P: Gadi Eizenkot — Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | 62.7¢ ↗ after fee | 54.6¢ ↗ after fee | -8.07¢ P cheaper |
| 12 | ComputerTech K: What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? P: Computer (Laptop/Desktop) — Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026? | 12.7¢ ↗ after fee | 4.7¢ ↗ after fee | -8.06¢ P cheaper |
| 13 | Republican partyPolitics K: Will Republican win the House race for MO-05? P: Rick Brattin (R) — Will the Republican Party win the MO-05 House seat? | 11.7¢ ↗ after fee | 19.6¢ ↗ after fee | +7.95¢ K cheaper |
| 14 | Lockheed MartinFinance K: Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in Lockheed Martin? P: Lockheed Martin — Will the US federal government take a stake in Lockheed Martin Corporation? | 11.7¢ ↗ after fee | 19.6¢ ↗ after fee | +7.95¢ K cheaper |
| 15 | Clip-on device for clothingTech K: What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? P: Clip-on device for clothing — Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026? | 13.8¢ ↗ after fee | 21.7¢ ↗ after fee | +7.90¢ K cheaper |
| 16 | TSMCFinance K: Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in TSMC? P: TSMC — Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited? | 14.8¢ ↗ after fee | 22.7¢ ↗ after fee | +7.87¢ K cheaper |
| 17 | Scott BessentPolitics K: Will Scott Bessent leaves Secretary of the Treasury in before 2027? P: Scott Bessent — Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 16.9¢ ↗ after fee | 9.3¢ ↗ after fee | -7.60¢ P cheaper |
| 18 | Below $1,500.00Crypto K: Will Ethereum reach below $1500.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET? P: ↓ 1,500 — Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? | 23.2¢ ↗ after fee | 15.8¢ ↗ after fee | -7.36¢ P cheaper |
| 19 | Elissa SlotkinPolitics K: Will Elissa Slotkin be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party? P: Elissa Slotkin — Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic vice-presidential nomination? | 13.8¢ ↗ after fee | 6.8¢ ↗ after fee | -7.04¢ P cheaper |
| 20 | J.B. PritzkerPolitics K: Will J.B. Pritzker be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Democratic party? P: J.B. Pritzker — Will J.B. Pritzker be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? | 0.9¢ ↗ after fee | 7.8¢ ↗ after fee | +6.93¢ K cheaper |
| 21 | Credit-card routing competitionPolitics K: Will legislation that requires two unaffiliated networks for processing covered credit-card transactions become law before Jan 1, 2027? P: Credit-card routing competition — Will Credit-card routing competition become law this year? | 4.3¢ ↗ after fee | 11.1¢ ↗ after fee | +6.83¢ K cheaper |
| 22 | Howard LutnickPolitics K: Will Howard Lutnick leaves Secretary of Commerce in before 2027? P: Howard Lutnick — Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? | 31.5¢ ↗ after fee | 24.8¢ ↗ after fee | -6.72¢ P cheaper |
| 23 | Delcy RodríguezPolitics K: Will Delcy Rodríguez be the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026? P: Delcy Rodríguez — Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | 16.9¢ ↗ after fee | 10.4¢ ↗ after fee | -6.57¢ P cheaper |
| 24 | TikTok USFinance K: Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, TikTok US or ByteDance? P: TikTok US / Bytedance — Will the US federal government take a stake in TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC or Bytedance? | 11.7¢ ↗ after fee | 5.2¢ ↗ after fee | -6.49¢ P cheaper |
| 25 | Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan?Culture K: Will Jon Favreau perform as Happy Hogan in Avengers: Doomsday? P: Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan — Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan? | 55.7¢ ↗ after fee | 49.3¢ ↗ after fee | -6.46¢ P cheaper |
How this is computed
The matched-outcome set comes from a manual review queue: a pair is included only after a human confirms that two markets, one on Kalshi and one on Polymarket, resolve to the same outcome. We use the Yes ask price from each side (the cost to enter a long Yes position) and add the exchange’s fee for that price level to get an after-fee per-contract cost.
Kalshi’s fee is computed from its standard taker schedule (and the lower INX/NASDAQ schedule for those tickers). Polymarket fees are computed only for fee-enabled markets and use the per-token fee rate when available. The signed gap is polymarket_after_fee − kalshi_after_fee, in cents. Positive means Kalshi is cheaper.
We drop pairs without a current Yes ask on both sides, and require a current Yes bid plus a bid-ask spread of 10¢ or less on each venue so thin books don’t dominate the analysis. Outliers beyond the 2nd–98th percentile are clamped to the histogram’s end bins so they don’t squash the rest of the distribution.
Categories assigned by exchange are unified by preferring the more specific tag if either side is “other”. About LocksBet →
