Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?

KPMatchedCombined volume $4.2MCloses 15mo
Updated 38 min ago

Compare prices

Best Yes
Best No
Details
79% implied probability
+4.1%
17% implied probability
+5.4%
2% implied probability
+1.5%
0% implied probability

Venue details

Volume, depth, close times, and each venue's trading-fee metadata (same values we use in the comparison above). Hover a fee cell for the venue's full fee wording.

Venue
Volume
24h vol
Depth
Closes
Fee
$1.0M
$3.3K
Moderate
Jun 30, 2027
No trading fee
$3.2M
$26.6K
Deep
Jul 1, 2027
7%
Always verify contract rules before trading.Contract rules ↓

Contract rules

Raw venue wording can differ even when titles match. Kalshi often shows one representative contract when rules vary by outcome—open the venue for the full set.

PPolymarket
Shared · 4 outcomes
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Description

This market will resolve according to the first entity that acquires control of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Transactions that involve only Warner Bros. Discovery's linear television networks, news channels, or other non-studio, non-streaming assets, without also transferring control of its studios and streaming businesses, will not qualify. Announcements of non-finalized arrangements — including, the currently announced Netflix agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming businesses — will not qualify. If no entity acquires control of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None by June 30 2027". Resolution will be based on by a consensus of reporting.

Closes
Jun 30, 2027
KKalshi
Representative · 3 outcomes

For Netflix

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Description

If qualifying public announcements indicate Netflix's takeover of Warner Brothers has succeeded Before July 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Resolution

A takeover "succeeds" when BOTH of the following are publicly announced: (a) Corporate Approval—shareholders approved the acquisition OR the acquirer acquired controlling interest (>50% of voting shares); AND (b) Conditions Satisfaction—all material conditions including regulatory approvals have been satisfied or waived. Press releases, SEC filings (8-K, Schedule TO amendments), and official company announcements qualify. Letters of intent, agreements in principle, or conditional announcements do not satisfy the criteria. If one acquirer's takeover succeeds, all other acquirer markets immediately resolve to No. Resolution is based on the announcements, not the ultimate transaction outcome—if both criteria are announced but the deal later fails, the market still resolves to Yes. The "None" option resolves to Yes only if no takeover succeeds by the deadline.

Closes
Jul 1, 2027
Resolves
Jul 1, 2027